Although bagels represent a small portion of the breakfast bakery category, they are showing a comeback in overall sales. Bagels represented 3 percent of total in-store bakery sales during the 52 weeks ending March 29, 2008, according to the Perishables Group. The Chicago-based firm compiles scanner data from grocery stores nationwide, representing 64 percent of the national supermarket ACV share. The results in this report represent the latest sales data for March 31, 2007 through March 29, 2008.

The bagel category was the smallest breakfast bakery category in dollar contribution behind donuts, sweetgoods and muffins. But, bagels generated an average of $262 a week per store, a 5.2 percent increase from the previous year. With bagels taking the biggest blow from low-carb food police during the diets' hay day, the uptick in bagel sales further indicates that low carb is dead. The improved sales make bagels third in growth in the breakfast bakery category and eighth overall relative to other categories in the bakery department. The bagel category includes assorted/variety bulk, regular, gourmet/large and mini/bite/chunk varieties.

Sales were relatively consistent throughout the year, which is in line with consumers' view of bagels as everyday products. The category increased dollar sales from January through March and peaked Easter week, ending March 22, 2008, at $292 in average weekly sales per store. With the exception of the weeks directly following a holiday (Thanksgiving, Christmas and Easter), each week from November through April registered above average dollar sales, indicating these are key months for generating category revenue.

Average weekly dollar sales grew in all regions compared to the previous year. Regionally, the East had the highest average weekly dollar sales with $554 per week per store — double the national average of $262 and an increase of nearly 4.5 percent from the previous year. The West outpaced national average weekly sales per store by 25.6 percent with $329, while posting the lowest increase over the prior year at 3.5 percent. Both the South and Central regions fell below the national weekly per store average with $135 and $183, respectively; although those regions outpaced the total U.S. in growth over the previous year, with the South increasing 5.5 and the Central region increasing 10.2 percent.

Bagels contributed 3 percent of bakery department sales for the total U.S. The East and West regions drove that contribution, outpacing the national average dollar contribution at 4.4 percent and 3.8 percent, respectively. The Central and South regions fell below the national average, contributing 1.9 percent each to the bagel category's contribution to total bakery department sales.

Nationally, assorted/variety bulk bagels dominated bagel sales. The subcategory accounted for 55 percent of sales, followed by regular bagels at 28.4 percent, gourmet/large bagels at 13.9 percent, mini/bite/chunk bagels at 2.1 percent and other bagels at 0.5 percent. Assorted/variety bulk and gourmet/large bagels saw the highest sales the week before Easter.

For more information about this report or the Perishables Group, call Kelli Beckel at 773/929-7013; or e-mail kellib@perishablesgroup.com.